Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Increase in winter warm spells in UK temperature records | |
admin | |
2020-05-07 | |
发布年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 英国 |
领域 | 资源环境 |
正文(英文) | Warm winter spells have increased in frequency and duration two- to three times over since 1878, according to a new study published this week (6 May 2020). In a new analysis of historical daily temperature data published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, scientists from the Department of Physics at the University of Warwick, British Antarctic Survey, and the London School of Economics examined data from the Central England Temperature (CET) record, the longest available instrumental record of temperature in the world. They focused on warm spells during the winter months, defined as sustained periods of time above a fixed temperature threshold. The conclusions do not rely on identifying and counting winter warm spells directly but instead use observations of daily temperatures to show how the likelihood of different temperatures has changed. By applying a method called ‘crossing theory’ to these probabilities, the scientists have provided information on the changing relationship between frequency, duration and intensity of these warm spells. The researchers focused on the maximum daily temperatures in December, January and February in observations from 1878. Week-long warm intervals that return on average every five years now consistently exceed 13 degrees C. In the 1850s, a winter warm spell lasting more than five days with a daily maximum temperature above 12-13°C would typically take at least five years to reoccur. Nowadays they occur more often, typically every four years or less. Climate variability is expected to increase as the global climate warms, and the increase of extended warm spells during winter can have an important impact on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems. However, ecosystems are not uniformly sensitive to changes at different temperatures. They are instead vulnerable to changes around critical temperature thresholds and these thresholds may be far from the distribution mean.
Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record is published in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0267.1
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URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | British Antarctic Survey |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/248258 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Increase in winter warm spells in UK temperature records. 2020. |
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