资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Using seven single‐model ensembles and the two multi‐model ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal‐variability range allow two non‐exclusive interpretations: a) observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multi‐decadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.