资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain鈥檚 power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GW_e) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from 拢29鈥?6m.yr^-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from 拢66-95m.yr^-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds 拢100m.yr^-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >拢200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1^st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.