Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1 |
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries | |
Gerten, Dieter1,2,3; Heck, Vera1,4; Jaegermeyr, Jonas1,5,6; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon1; Fetzer, Ingo7,8; Jalava, Mika4; Kummu, Matti4; Lucht, Wolfgang1,2,3; Rockstroem, Johan1; Schaphoff, Sibyll1; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim1 | |
2020-01-20 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
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ISSN | 2398-9629 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 3期号:3页码:200-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Finland; USA; Sweden |
英文摘要 | Global agriculture puts heavy pressure on planetary boundaries, posing the challenge to achieve future food security without compromising Earth system resilience. On the basis of process-detailed, spatially explicit representation of four interlinked planetary boundaries (biosphere integrity, land-system change, freshwater use, nitrogen flows) and agricultural systems in an internally consistent model framework, we here show that almost half of current global food production depends on planetary boundary transgressions. Hotspot regions, mainly in Asia, even face simultaneous transgression of multiple underlying local boundaries. If these boundaries were strictly respected, the present food system could provide a balanced diet (2,355 kcal per capita per day) for 3.4 billion people only. However, as we also demonstrate, transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption patterns could support 10.2 billion people within the planetary boundaries analysed. Key prerequisites are spatially redistributed cropland, improved water-nutrient management, food waste reduction and dietary changes. Agriculture transforms the Earth and risks crossing thresholds for a healthy planet. This study finds almost half of current food production crosses such boundaries, as for freshwater use, but that transformation towards more sustainable production and consumption could support 10.2 billion people. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000508322400001 |
WOS关键词 | DYNAMIC GLOBAL VEGETATION ; NITROGEN-CYCLE ; FOOD SECURITY ; MODEL ; WATER ; EMISSIONS ; NUTRIENT ; IMPACTS ; DEMAND |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249444 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany; 3.Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Berlin, Germany; 4.Aalto Univ, Water & Dev Res Grp, Espoo, Finland; 5.Univ Chicago, Dept Comp Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; 6.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 7.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden; 8.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gerten, Dieter,Heck, Vera,Jaegermeyr, Jonas,et al. Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2020,3(3):200-+. |
APA | Gerten, Dieter.,Heck, Vera.,Jaegermeyr, Jonas.,Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon.,Fetzer, Ingo.,...&Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim.(2020).Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,3(3),200-+. |
MLA | Gerten, Dieter,et al."Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 3.3(2020):200-+. |
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