GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7
Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Gao, Jing1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2
2020-05-08
发表期刊NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN2041-1723
出版年2020
卷号11期号:1
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Urban land expansion is one of the most visible, irreversible, and rapid types of land cover/land use change in contemporary human history, and is a key driver for many environmental and societal changes across scales. Yet spatial projections of how much and where it may occur are often limited to short-term futures and small geographic areas. Here we produce a first empirically-grounded set of global, spatial urban land projections over the 21st century. We use a data-science approach exploiting 15 diverse datasets, including a newly available 40-year global time series of fine-spatial-resolution remote sensing observations. We find the global total amount of urban land could increase by a factor of 1.8-5.9, and the per capita amount by a factor of 1.1-4.9, across different socioeconomic scenarios over the century. Though the fastest urban land expansion occurs in Africa and Asia, the developed world experiences a similarly large amount of new development. Here the authors develop a set of global, long-term, spatial projections of urban land expansion for understanding the planet's potential urban futures. The global total amount of urban land increases by a factor of 1.8-5.9 over the 21st century, and the developed world experiences as much new urban development as the developing world.


领域地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000533936800026
WOS关键词BIAS-VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; URBANIZATION ; GROWTH ; TRAJECTORIES ; EXPANSION ; ERRORS ; FORM ; AREA
WOS类目Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249950
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Delaware, Dept Geog & Spatial Sci, Newark, DE 19716 USA;
2.Univ Delaware, Data Sci Inst, Newark, DE 19716 USA;
3.Univ Denver, Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Denver, CO 80208 USA;
4.Univ Denver, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, Denver, CO 80208 USA
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Gao, Jing,39;Neill, Brian C.. Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1).
APA Gao, Jing,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2020).Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1).
MLA Gao, Jing,et al."Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020).
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