Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-15788-7 |
Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | |
Gao, Jing1; 39;Neill, Brian C.2 | |
2020-05-08 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Urban land expansion is one of the most visible, irreversible, and rapid types of land cover/land use change in contemporary human history, and is a key driver for many environmental and societal changes across scales. Yet spatial projections of how much and where it may occur are often limited to short-term futures and small geographic areas. Here we produce a first empirically-grounded set of global, spatial urban land projections over the 21st century. We use a data-science approach exploiting 15 diverse datasets, including a newly available 40-year global time series of fine-spatial-resolution remote sensing observations. We find the global total amount of urban land could increase by a factor of 1.8-5.9, and the per capita amount by a factor of 1.1-4.9, across different socioeconomic scenarios over the century. Though the fastest urban land expansion occurs in Africa and Asia, the developed world experiences a similarly large amount of new development. Here the authors develop a set of global, long-term, spatial projections of urban land expansion for understanding the planet's potential urban futures. The global total amount of urban land increases by a factor of 1.8-5.9 over the 21st century, and the developed world experiences as much new urban development as the developing world. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000533936800026 |
WOS关键词 | BIAS-VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; URBANIZATION ; GROWTH ; TRAJECTORIES ; EXPANSION ; ERRORS ; FORM ; AREA |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/249950 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Delaware, Dept Geog & Spatial Sci, Newark, DE 19716 USA; 2.Univ Delaware, Data Sci Inst, Newark, DE 19716 USA; 3.Univ Denver, Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Denver, CO 80208 USA; 4.Univ Denver, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, Denver, CO 80208 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Jing,39;Neill, Brian C.. Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Gao, Jing,&39;Neill, Brian C..(2020).Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Gao, Jing,et al."Mapping global urban land for the 21st century with data-driven simulations and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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