Strategic Dialogue: Shaping a U.S. Strategy for the “Ghosts” of Iraq

April 22, 2020

The Burke Chair has issued the second major revision to a working analysis of the political/governance, economic, and security challenges that Iraq faces, which addresses their impact on creating a lasting strategic relationship with the United States.

This analysis was developed to explore the issues raised by Secretary Pompeo’s announcement on April 7, 2020 that the United States would hold a strategic dialogue with the Iraqi government in mid-June 2020. The announcement stated that,

“With the global COVID-19 pandemic raging and plummeting oil revenues threatening an Iraqi economic collapse, it's important that our two governments work together to stop any reversal of the gains we've made in our efforts to defeat ISIS and stabilize the country. All strategic issues between our two countries will be on the agenda, including the future presence of the United States forces in that country and how best to support an independent and sovereign Iraq.”

“Secretary Pompeo made it clear that the United States would have to reassess its strategy in Iraq in terms of the growing Iranian and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) pressure on the U.S. troop presence in Iraq, but also in terms of the impact of the Coronavirus on the Iraqi economy and the lack of any clear political unity in Iraq. He stated that the United States would support any Iraqi regime that moved, “away from the old sectarian model that ended up with terror and corruption.”

This new draft reflects ongoing shifts in Iraqi politics, the impact of the Coronavirus, and the impact of massive cuts in world oil prices as well as cuts to Iraq’s oil revenues since the original version was published on April 10, 2020.  It also reflects comments on the earlier two drafts from a variety of outside experts, as well as from analysis by Iraqis following an Internet Conference moderated by Munquith Dagher – the CEO and founder of IIACSS research group (Al Mustakillah) in Iraq and a Gallup International board member – that was held  in Arabic and English on April 17, 2020.

Further revisions will be issued in the future, given the rapid pace of change in Iraq, the region, and U.S. force levels and strategy. Setting the right goals for a U.S-Iraqi strategic dialogue – and for a more lasting joint effort to create a stable strategic relationship – is a critical step towards creating some form of lasting U.S.-Iraqi relationship to be one that will counter both threats from extremism and Iran. At the same time, it is also similar to setting up a strategic dialogue with an Iraq where the country’s current position on these three most critical elements are so uncertain and unstable that they are close to being “ghosts.”

The analysis shows that the first such “ghost” is the current state of Iraqi politics and governance. The Iraqi government does not have a clear path to effective leadership, and it is dysfunctional and corrupt at every level. Iraqi politics are deeply divided, and these divisions reflect serious and growing failures. This must change if Iraq is to emerge as a stable and secure state.

The Iraqi economy is the second “ghost.” The analysis shows that Iraq now faces near collapse because of the global drop in demand for petroleum caused by both the Coronavirus and the surplus of supply from the “oil war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi economy was weak and unstable even before these crises began, had weak agricultural and industrial sectors, and was affected by Iraq’s divided elite that took a far larger share instead of providing the kind of income distribution that would bring Iraq stability. Divided as Iraq was on a sectarian and ethnic level, it faced further growing divisions because its economy did not serve its people.

Finally, the third ghost is “security,” which has been the almost exclusive center of U.S. strategic attention since 2011, also including the ISIS invasion of Iraq that followed. Neither Iraq nor the United States have yet properly shifted away from the battle to break up the ISIS “caliphate” to create an effective approach to security. This includes the need to create Iraqi security forces that are unified, serve the central government, deal with the continuing threat from ISIS and other extremists, and can defend Iraq as a nation from potential regional threats like Iran. It may be unfair to describe Iraq’s divided security forces as Iraq’s third “ghost,” but they are more haunted by the past than moving towards a clear future.

Accordingly, a meaningful strategic dialogue between the United States and Iraq must address all three of these sets of issues – or ghosts – politics and governance, economics, and security. It cannot continue to be focused on security, and particularly on ISIS. Iraq must find its own answers in each case, and the United States cannot help an Iraq that cannot unite or act to the point where it can help itself. At the same time, the United States must decide whether it will commit itself to a sustained effort to help Iraq emerge as a nation that is unified and strong enough to prevent further civil conflict and act independently of Iranian pressure and threats.

The report’s new Table of Contents include:

This report entitled, Strategic Dialogue: Shaping a U.S. Strategy for the “Ghosts” of Iraq , is available for download at https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/200421_Burke_Chair.Iraq_Shaping_Strategy.pdf?PMRkpQc9ZDfufCkmskX2h5SjkyIFCS9Y 

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. He has served as a consultant on Afghanistan to the United States Department of Defense and the United States Department of State.