资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Alternative Futures (AF) landscape ecological planning integrates scientific inquiry and findings into plausible futures that can shape and inform decisions on public policy. AF theorists typically present an AF process in which expert deliberation about technically possible futures is separate from political decision-making about desirable or socially acceptable futures. This paper offers an alternative interpretation of Alternative Futures. It asks whether crucial decision-making might take place prior to direction from elected officials. Is it possible to identify such decisions embedded in the AF planning process? Based on analysis of AF literature we reframe the categories of action in the process of AF planning as a series of 'Discursive Moments' in which technical possibilities interweave with more overtly political decision-making throughout the ecological planning process. Each Discursive Moment impacts all subsequent phases of the process, as well as the eventual real world outcomes.

The concept of Discursive Moments is investigated through two case studies in the US Mountain West, selected to represent two contrasting planning approaches. Evidence from documentary analysis and key informant interviews elucidates the nature of both deliberative and decision-making work during each Discursive Moment. We conclude that the concept of Discursive Moments a) draws attention to the constant interplay between deliberative discussion and decision-making throughout the AF planning process more overtly than is found in previous literature, b) identifies critical decisions early in the process that are under-examined in previous literature, c) proposes a preliminary checklist of decisions that require deliberation during each Discursive Moment, d) reframes the competence of the AF planning team by adding the skills of mediating between deliberation and decision-making, and e) provides valuable information to institutions and decision makers considering AF approaches.