Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2018.05.006 |
Bicycle, pedestrian, and mixed-mode trail traffic: A performance assessment of demand models | |
Ermagun, Alireza1; Lindsey, Greg2; Loh, Tracy Hadden3 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING
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ISSN | 0169-2046 |
EISSN | 1872-6062 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 177页码:92-102 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study presents new trail demand models based on data collected between January 1, 2014 and February 16, 2016 at 32 locations in the seven major climatic regions in the continental U.S. We contribute fourfold to the literature on analysis of trail traffic demand. First, we develop a set of econometric models to predict average daily pedestrians (ADP), average daily bicyclists (ADB), and average daily mixed-mode traffic (ADM) using the 5 D's of the built environment (i.e., density, diversity, design, distance to transit, and destination accessibility), and socio-economic characteristics. Second, we test the performance of trail demand models in predicting ADB, ADP, and ADM using the leave-one-out cross-validation technique and compare the relative accuracy of the models. Third, we assess the performance of separate bicycle and pedestrian demand models in predicting mixed-mode travel demand. Fourth, we introduce a post-validation technique to advance the prediction accuracy of trail traffic demand models. The results indicate: (1) with only a few exceptions, ADP and ADB are correlated with different variables, and the magnitude of effects of variables that are the same varies significantly between the two modes; (2) The mean relative percentage error (MRPE) for bicyclist, pedestrian, and mixed-mode models equals 65.4%, 85.3%, and 45.9%; (3) Although using separate but integrated sensors to monitor bicycle and pedestrian traffic enables us to juxtapose the bicyclist demand with pedestrian demand, there is not a significant improvement in predicting total demand using these more expensive sensors; (4) A new post-validation procedure improved the demand models, reducing the MRPE of bicyclist, pedestrian, and mixed-mode models by 27.2%, 32.1%, and 14.1%. Overall, our models confirm that different variables are correlated with bicycle and pedestrian traffic volumes and that these modes need to be modeled separately. Our models can be used in practical applications such as selection of trail corridors and prioritization of investments where order-of magnitude estimates suffice. |
英文关键词 | Trail traffic Average daily bicyclists Average daily pedestrians Mixed-mode Demand model Built environment |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000437967500009 |
WOS关键词 | WEATHER ; MINNEAPOLIS ; VALIDATION ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Ecology ; Environmental Studies ; Geography ; Geography, Physical ; Regional & Urban Planning ; Urban Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography ; Physical Geography ; Public Administration ; Urban Studies |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25267 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Northwestern Univ, McCormick Sch Engn & Appl Sci, 2145 Sheridan Rd, Evanston, IL 60208 USA; 2.Univ Minnesota, Humphrey Sch Publ Affairs, 301 19th Ave S 295C, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA; 3.George Washington Univ, Ctr Real Estate & Urban Anal, 2201 G St NW,Duques Hall, Washington, DC 20052 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ermagun, Alireza,Lindsey, Greg,Loh, Tracy Hadden. Bicycle, pedestrian, and mixed-mode trail traffic: A performance assessment of demand models[J]. LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,2018,177:92-102. |
APA | Ermagun, Alireza,Lindsey, Greg,&Loh, Tracy Hadden.(2018).Bicycle, pedestrian, and mixed-mode trail traffic: A performance assessment of demand models.LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING,177,92-102. |
MLA | Ermagun, Alireza,et al."Bicycle, pedestrian, and mixed-mode trail traffic: A performance assessment of demand models".LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING 177(2018):92-102. |
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