Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073736 |
Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century | |
O&1; 39;Reilly, Christopher H.2 | |
2017-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Norway |
英文摘要 | Seasonal hindcast experiments, using prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are analyzed for Northern Hemisphere winters from 1900 to 2010. Ensemble mean Pacific/North American index (PNA) skill varies dramatically, dropping toward zero during the mid-twentieth century, with similar variability in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) hindcast skill. The PNA skill closely follows the correlation between the observed PNA index and tropical Pacific SST anomalies. During the mid-century period the PNA and NAO hindcast errors are closely related. The drop in PNA predictability is due to mid-century negative PNA events, which were not forced in a predictable manner by tropical Pacific SST anomalies. Overall, negative PNA events are less predictable and seem likely to arise more from internal atmospheric variability than positive PNA events. Our results suggest that seasonal forecasting systems assessed over the recent 30year period may be less skillful in periods, such as the mid-twentieth century, with relatively weak forcing from tropical Pacific SST anomalies. |
英文关键词 | seasonal forecasts PNA NAO tropical Pacific SST predictability climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404382600054 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PNA PATTERN ; EL-NINO ; LA-NINA ; PREDICTABILITY ; ANOMALIES ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25523 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O&,39;Reilly, Christopher H.. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(11). |
APA | O&,&39;Reilly, Christopher H..(2017).Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(11). |
MLA | O&,et al."Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.11(2017). |
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