Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075226 |
Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change | |
Langenbrunner, Baird1,2; Neelin, J. David1 | |
2017-12-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:24 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints. |
英文关键词 | multiobjective optimization emergent constraints California precipitation uncertainty quantification Pareto front evolutionary algorithms |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422954700001 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS ; HEMISPHERE JET PORTRAYAL ; WINTER PRECIPITATION ; EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; SENSITIVITY ; FUTURE ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; FEEDBACK ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25774 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Langenbrunner, Baird,Neelin, J. David. Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(24). |
APA | Langenbrunner, Baird,&Neelin, J. David.(2017).Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(24). |
MLA | Langenbrunner, Baird,et al."Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.24(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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