Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078387 |
An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction With AFT: The Modern Minimum | |
Upton, Lisa A.1; Hathaway, David H.2 | |
2018-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:16页码:8091-8095 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be used to extend these predictions by evolving the Sun's surface magnetic field to obtain an earlier prediction for the strength of the polar fields, and thus the amplitude of the next cycle. In 2016, our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model was used to do this, producing an early prediction for Solar Cycle 25. At that time, AFT predicted that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the Cycle 24, with an uncertainty of about 15%. AFT also predicted that the polar fields in the southern hemisphere would weaken in late 2016 and into 2017 before recovering. That AFT prediction was based on the magnetic field configuration at the end of January 2016. We now have two more years of observations. We examine the accuracy of the 2016 AFT prediction and find that the new observations track well with AFT's predictions for the last 2 years. We show that the southern relapse did in fact occur, though the timing was off by several months. We propose a possible cause for the southern relapse and discuss the reason for the offset in timing. Finally, we provide an updated AFT prediction for Solar Cycle 25 that includes solar observations through January of 2018. Plain Language Summary After the exceptionally weak Solar Cycle 24 (SC24), there is considerable interest in accurately predicting the amplitude of the coming Solar Cycle 25 (SC25). In 2016, the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) Model was used to make such a prediction. We now have two additional years of solar data. Here we compare the results of the previous prediction to the observations that have since occurred. We then use the additional two years of data to create an updated prediction, with a much smaller uncertainty. We predict that SC25 will be about slightly smaller (similar to 95%) the strength of SC24, making it the weakest solar cycle in the last hundred years. We also predict that,like SC24, SC25 will be preceded by a long extended solar minimum. Finally, these results indicate that we are now in the midst of a Modern Gleissberg Minimum. |
英文关键词 | Sun solar cycle Gleissberg Cycle 25 advective flux transport Maunder Minimum |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445612500024 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25834 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, High Altitude Observ, Pob 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Stanford Univ, Solar Observ Grp, Stanford, CA 94305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Upton, Lisa A.,Hathaway, David H.. An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction With AFT: The Modern Minimum[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(16):8091-8095. |
APA | Upton, Lisa A.,&Hathaway, David H..(2018).An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction With AFT: The Modern Minimum.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(16),8091-8095. |
MLA | Upton, Lisa A.,et al."An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction With AFT: The Modern Minimum".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.16(2018):8091-8095. |
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