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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075251 |
Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity | |
Broccardo, M.1; Mignan, A.1,2,3; Wiemer, S.1,2,3; Stojadinovic, B.1,4; Giardini, D.1,2,3 | |
2017-11-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:22 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland |
英文摘要 | In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation. Plain Language Summary In this study, the authors propose a general and novel probabilistic framework for analyzing and forecasting uncertainties related to fluid-induced seismicity. Their findings show that the proposed framework enables a novel and more in-depth understanding of the uncertainties governing fluid-induced seismicity. Moreover, they show that a new short-time forecast model formulated using the proposed framework supports an accurate prediction of the number and magnitude of fluid-induced events. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000419102300016 |
WOS关键词 | INJECTION ; PROBABILITY ; FORECAST |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/25858 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Competence Ctr Energy Res Supply Elect, Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol Zurich, Inst Geophys, Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Swiss Seismol Serv, Zurich, Switzerland; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Struct Engn IBK, Zurich, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Broccardo, M.,Mignan, A.,Wiemer, S.,et al. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(22). |
APA | Broccardo, M.,Mignan, A.,Wiemer, S.,Stojadinovic, B.,&Giardini, D..(2017).Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(22). |
MLA | Broccardo, M.,et al."Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.22(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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