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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa |
Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models | |
Gleixner, Stephanie1,2; Keenlyside, Noel S.1,2,4; Demissie, Teferi D.3; Counillon, Francois4; Wang, Yiguo4; Viste, Ellen1,2 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway |
英文摘要 | The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Nino 3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation. |
英文关键词 | Ethiopia Kiremt rainfall seasonal prediction ENSO walker circulation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000424392900007 |
WOS关键词 | JUNE-SEPTEMBER RAINFALL ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE ; ETHIOPIA ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; AFRICA ; SYSTEM ; FORECAST ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26038 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway; 2.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway; 4.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, Bergen, Norway |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gleixner, Stephanie,Keenlyside, Noel S.,Demissie, Teferi D.,et al. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(11). |
APA | Gleixner, Stephanie,Keenlyside, Noel S.,Demissie, Teferi D.,Counillon, Francois,Wang, Yiguo,&Viste, Ellen.(2017).Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(11). |
MLA | Gleixner, Stephanie,et al."Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.11(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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