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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aab797 |
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C | |
Saeed, Fahad1,2; Bethke, Ingo3; Fischer, Erich4; Legutke, Stephanie5; Shiogama, Hideo6; Stone, Daithi A.7; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich1,8,9 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Saudi Arabia; Norway; Switzerland; Japan; USA |
英文摘要 | Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset and length have substantial consequences. Here we present projections for changes in tropical rainy season lengths for mean temperature increase of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Based on multi-ensemble quasi-stationary simulations at these warming levels, our analysis indicates robust changes in rainy season characteristics in large parts of the tropics despite substantial natural variability. Specifically, we report a robust shortening of the rainy season for all of tropical Africa as well as north-east Brazil. About 27% of West Africa is projected to experience robust changes in the rainy season length with a mean shortening of about 7 days under 1.5 degrees C. We find that changes in the temporal characteristics are largely unrelated to changes in overall precipitation, highlighting the importance of investigating both separately. |
英文关键词 | 1.5 degrees C tropics rainy season onset climate change climate modelling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434489800003 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RAINFALL ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; WESTERN ; SAHEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26066 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany; 2.King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 5.Deutsch Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany; 6.Ctr Global Environm Res, Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 7.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Computat Res Div, Berkeley, CA USA; 8.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; 9.Humboldt Univ, IRITHESys, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Saeed, Fahad,Bethke, Ingo,Fischer, Erich,et al. Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Saeed, Fahad.,Bethke, Ingo.,Fischer, Erich.,Legutke, Stephanie.,Shiogama, Hideo.,...&Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich.(2018).Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Saeed, Fahad,et al."Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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