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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf338 |
Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand | |
Thornton, H. E.1; Scaife, A. A.1,2; Hoskins, B. J.3,4; Brayshaw, D. J.3,5; Smith, D. M.1; Dunstone, N.1; Stringer, N.1; Bett, P. E.1 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | In Britain, residential properties are predominantly heated using gas central heating systems. Ensuring a reliable supply of gas is therefore vital in protecting vulnerable sections of society from the adverse effects of cold weather. Ahead of the winter, the grid operator makes a prediction of gas demand to better anticipate possible conditions. Seasonal weather forecasts are not currently used to inform this demand prediction. Here we assess whether seasonal weather forecasts can skilfully predict the weather-driven component of both winter mean gas demand and the number of extreme gas demand days over the winter period. We find that both the mean and the number of extreme days are predicted with some skill from early November using seasonal forecasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (r > 0.5). Although temperature is most strongly correlated with gas demand, the more skilful prediction of the atmospheric circulation means it is a better predictor of demand. If seasonal weather forecasts are incorporated into pre-winter gas demand planning, they could help improve the security of gas supplies and reduce the impacts associated with extreme demand events. |
英文关键词 | seasonal weather forecasting atmospheric circulation gas demand energy winter UK |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000457539400003 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; FORECASTS ; ENERGY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26109 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 4.Imperial Coll, London, England; 5.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thornton, H. E.,Scaife, A. A.,Hoskins, B. J.,et al. Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(2). |
APA | Thornton, H. E..,Scaife, A. A..,Hoskins, B. J..,Brayshaw, D. J..,Smith, D. M..,...&Bett, P. E..(2019).Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(2). |
MLA | Thornton, H. E.,et al."Skilful seasonal prediction of winter gas demand".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.2(2019). |
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