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DOI | 10.5194/acp-17-8805-2017 |
Inverse modeling of the Chernobyl source term using atmospheric concentration and deposition measurements | |
Evangeliou, Nikolaos1; Hamburger, Thomas1,3; Cozic, Anne2; Balkanski, Yves2; Stohl, Andreas1 | |
2017-07-20 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 17期号:14 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway; France; Germany |
英文摘要 | This paper describes the results of an inverse modeling study for the determination of the source term of the radionuclides Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 released after the Chernobyl accident. The accident occurred on 26 April 1986 in the Former Soviet Union and released about 10(19) Bq of radioactive materials that were transported as far away as the USA and Japan. Thereafter, several attempts to assess the magnitude of the emissions were made that were based on the knowledge of the core inventory and the levels of the spent fuel. More recently, when modeling tools were further developed, inverse modeling techniques were applied to the Chernobyl case for source term quantification. However, because radioactivity is a sensitive topic for the public and attracts a lot of attention, high-quality measurements, which are essential for inverse modeling, were not made available except for a few sparse activity concentration measurements far from the source and far from the main direction of the radioactive fallout. For the first time, we apply Bayesian inversion of the Chernobyl source term using not only activity concentrations but also deposition measurements from the most recent public data set. These observations refer to a data rescue attempt that started more than 10 years ago, with a final goal to provide available measurements to anyone interested. In regards to our inverse modeling results, emissions of Cs-134 were estimated to be 80 PBq or 30-50% higher than what was previously published. From the released amount of Cs-134, about 70 PBq were deposited all over Europe. Similar to Cs-134, emissions of Cs-137 were estimated as 86 PBq, on the same order as previously reported results. Finally, I-131 emissions of 1365 PBq were found, which are about 10% less than the prior total releases. The inversion pushes the injection heights of the three radionuclides to higher altitudes (up to about 3 km) than previously assumed (approximate to 2.2 km) in order to better match both concentration and deposition observations over Europe. The results of the present inversion were confirmed using an independent Eulerian model, for which deposition patterns were also improved when using the estimated posterior releases. Although the independent model tends to underestimate deposition in countries that are not in the main direction of the plume, it reproduces country levels of deposition very efficiently. The results were also tested for robustness against different setups of the inversion through sensitivity runs. The source term data from this study are publicly available. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406151800001 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; PARTICLE DISPERSION MODEL ; RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION ; SIZE DISTRIBUTION ; ACCIDENT ; TRANSPORT ; EUROPE ; RADIONUCLIDES ; FUKUSHIMA ; EMISSIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26213 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.NILU Norwegian Inst Air Res, Dept Atmospher & Climate Res ATMOS, Kjeller, Norway; 2.CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Inst Pierre & Simon Laplace,UMR 8212,LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; 3.BfS Bundesamt Strahlenschutz, Decis Support Syst, Sect SW 2-2, D-85764 Oberschleissheim, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Evangeliou, Nikolaos,Hamburger, Thomas,Cozic, Anne,et al. Inverse modeling of the Chernobyl source term using atmospheric concentration and deposition measurements[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2017,17(14). |
APA | Evangeliou, Nikolaos,Hamburger, Thomas,Cozic, Anne,Balkanski, Yves,&Stohl, Andreas.(2017).Inverse modeling of the Chernobyl source term using atmospheric concentration and deposition measurements.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,17(14). |
MLA | Evangeliou, Nikolaos,et al."Inverse modeling of the Chernobyl source term using atmospheric concentration and deposition measurements".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17.14(2017). |
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