Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074088 |
Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures? | |
Newman, Matthew1,2; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.1,2 | |
2017-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:16 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The predictability of seasonal anomalies worldwide rests largely on the predictability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Tropical forecast skill is also a key metric of climate models. We find, however, that despite extensive model development, the tropical SST forecast skill of the operational North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of eight coupled atmosphere-ocean models remains close both regionally and temporally to that of a vastly simpler linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed covariances of SST, sea surface height, and wind fields. The LIM clearly captures the essence of the predictable SST dynamics. The NMME and LIM skills also closely track and are only slightly lower than the potential skill estimated using the LIM's forecast signal-to-noise ratios. This suggests that the scope for further skill improvement is small in most regions, except in the western equatorial Pacific where the NMME skill is currently much lower than the LIM skill. |
英文关键词 | ENSO predictability seasonal forecasts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410658800050 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; ENSO PREDICTION ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; OPTIMAL-GROWTH ; COUPLED MODEL ; MARKOV-MODELS ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; ANOMALIES ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26267 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.NOAA PSD, Boulder, CO 80305 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Newman, Matthew,Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.. Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(16). |
APA | Newman, Matthew,&Sardeshmukh, Prashant D..(2017).Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(16). |
MLA | Newman, Matthew,et al."Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.16(2017). |
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