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Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European

Plain Language Summary Surface air temperature (SAT) over Europe displays pronounced variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales. A better understanding of the underlying source of SAT variability in different regions, to what extent this source is predictable, and at which time scale, is key in order to achieve skillful predictions of European climate. Here we provide the first assessment of SAT variability in Europe as a function of region and time scale. For each region and time scale, we also quantify the relative contribution from atmospheric circulation and ocean temperature on SAT variability. As ocean temperatures are considered more predictable than atmospheric circulation changes, identifying regions where ocean temperature is a main source of SAT variability is important for identifying regions with high potential for predictability.