GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2018GL077401
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability
Arthun, Marius1,2; Kolstad, Erikw.3; Eldevik, Tor1,2; Keenlyside, Noel S.1,2
2018-04-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:8页码:3597-3604
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Norway
英文摘要

Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European


Plain Language Summary Surface air temperature (SAT) over Europe displays pronounced variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales. A better understanding of the underlying source of SAT variability in different regions, to what extent this source is predictable, and at which time scale, is key in order to achieve skillful predictions of European climate. Here we provide the first assessment of SAT variability in Europe as a function of region and time scale. For each region and time scale, we also quantify the relative contribution from atmospheric circulation and ocean temperature on SAT variability. As ocean temperatures are considered more predictable than atmospheric circulation changes, identifying regions where ocean temperature is a main source of SAT variability is important for identifying regions with high potential for predictability.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000435745500032
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ATLANTIC SST VARIABILITY ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; WINTER ; OCEAN ; PREDICTION ; ANOMALIES ; MECHANISMS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26341
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway;
2.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway;
3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway
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Arthun, Marius,Kolstad, Erikw.,Eldevik, Tor,et al. Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(8):3597-3604.
APA Arthun, Marius,Kolstad, Erikw.,Eldevik, Tor,&Keenlyside, Noel S..(2018).Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(8),3597-3604.
MLA Arthun, Marius,et al."Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.8(2018):3597-3604.
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