资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was shown to affect both present-day sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic and their future frequency under global warming scenarios, with implications to the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. This work uses a dry dynamic core model to understand the dependence of SSW frequency on the amplitude and longitudinal range of the MJO, motivated by the prediction that the MJO will strengthen and broaden its longitudinal range in a warmer climate. We focus on the response of the midlatitude jets and the corresponding generated stationary waves, which are shown to dominate the response of SSW events to MJO forcing. Momentum budget analysis of a large ensemble of spinup simulations suggests that the climatological jet response is driven by the MJO-forced meridional eddy momentum transport. The results suggest that the trends in both MJO amplitude and longitudinal range are important for the prediction of the midlatitude jet response and for the prediction of SSWs in a future climate.