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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076730 |
Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes | |
Bell, Andrew F. | |
2018-02-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:4页码:1860-1869 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland |
英文摘要 | Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000427564300019 |
WOS关键词 | SOUFRIERE-HILLS-VOLCANO ; FAILURE ; SEISMICITY ; PATTERNS ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26561 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bell, Andrew F.. Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(4):1860-1869. |
APA | Bell, Andrew F..(2018).Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(4),1860-1869. |
MLA | Bell, Andrew F.."Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.4(2018):1860-1869. |
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