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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075080 |
Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions | |
Williams, Richard G.1; Roussenov, Vassil1; Frolicher, Thomas L.2,3; Goodwin, Philip4 | |
2017-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1,000 year integration of an Earth system model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land. Plain Language Summary The climate response after carbon emissions cease is examined here, exploiting a combination of theory and diagnostics of an Earth system model. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered over 1,000 years. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. Surface temperature continues to increase after carbon emissions cease through a decline in ocean heat uptake, which increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the excess atmospheric carbon dioxide is taken up by the ocean and land. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416761600064 |
WOS关键词 | CUMULATIVE CARBON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PART I ; FORMULATION ; SENSITIVITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26672 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Dept Earth Ocean & Ecol Sci, Liverpool, Merseyside, England; 2.Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland; 3.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland; 4.Univ Southampton, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci, Southampton, Hants, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Williams, Richard G.,Roussenov, Vassil,Frolicher, Thomas L.,et al. Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(20). |
APA | Williams, Richard G.,Roussenov, Vassil,Frolicher, Thomas L.,&Goodwin, Philip.(2017).Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(20). |
MLA | Williams, Richard G.,et al."Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.20(2017). |
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