Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074781 |
ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May US tornado and hail activity | |
Lepore, Chiara1; Tippett, Michael K.2,3; Allen, John T.4 | |
2017-09-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:17 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Saudi Arabia |
英文摘要 | Extended logistic regression is used to predict March-May severe convective storm (SCS) activity based on the preceding December-February (DJF) El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. The spatially resolved probabilistic forecasts are verified against U.S. tornado counts, hail events, and two environmental indices for severe convection. The cross-validated skill is positive for roughly a quarter of the U.S. Overall, indices are predicted with more skill than are storm reports, and hail events are predicted with more skill than tornado counts. Skill is higher in the cool phase of ENSO (La Nina like) when overall SCS activity is higher. SCS forecasts based on the predicted DJF ENSO state from coupled dynamical models initialized in October of the previous year extend the lead time with only a modest reduction in skill compared to forecasts based on the observed DJF ENSO state. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000411702400048 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ENSO ; SKILL ; PRECIPITATION ; OUTBREAKS ; WINTER |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26681 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA; 3.King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; 4.Cent Michigan Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Mt Pleasant, MI 48859 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lepore, Chiara,Tippett, Michael K.,Allen, John T.. ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May US tornado and hail activity[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(17). |
APA | Lepore, Chiara,Tippett, Michael K.,&Allen, John T..(2017).ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May US tornado and hail activity.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(17). |
MLA | Lepore, Chiara,et al."ENSO-based probabilistic forecasts of March-May US tornado and hail activity".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.17(2017). |
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