Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02 |
Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades | |
Nicola Maher; Flavio Lehner; Jochem Marotzke | |
2020-05-18 | |
发表期刊 | Environmental Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth's surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or 'hiatus'. In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/267574 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicola Maher,Flavio Lehner,Jochem Marotzke. Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Nicola Maher,Flavio Lehner,&Jochem Marotzke.(2020).Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades.Environmental Research Letters. |
MLA | Nicola Maher,et al."Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades".Environmental Research Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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