资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We use several global coupled atmosphere-ocean-biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to show that the global interannual variability of the sea surface pCO(2)(calculated as 1 sigma) will increase by similar to 64 +/- 20% by 2040-2090 relative to the beginning of the industrial revolution under the RCP8.5 scenario. All models agree that the increase in variability is a consequence of a larger background pCO(2)and a lower buffering capacity that enhance the response of pCO(2)to the fluctuations of surface temperature (T) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). The most skillful group of models under present-day conditions shows a future global decrease in DIC fluctuations that will weaken the pCO(2)interannual variability (IAV). The remaining uncertainties in the projected evolution of pCO(2)variability regionally highlight the need for continuous carbon monitoring programs which will contribute to a better understanding of the oceanic carbon sink's response to increased green house emissions.