Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074622 |
Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability? | |
Coats, S.1,2; Karnauskas, K. B.2,3 | |
2017-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413921300046 |
WOS关键词 | WALKER CIRCULATION ; EL-NINO ; OCEAN DYNAMICS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; OSCILLATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; THERMOSTAT ; CMIP5 ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26788 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Adv Studies Program, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperature Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Coats, S.,Karnauskas, K. B.. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(19). |
APA | Coats, S.,&Karnauskas, K. B..(2017).Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(19). |
MLA | Coats, S.,et al."Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.19(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Coats, S.]的文章 |
[Karnauskas, K. B.]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Coats, S.]的文章 |
[Karnauskas, K. B.]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Coats, S.]的文章 |
[Karnauskas, K. B.]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论