Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078465 |
Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States | |
Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian; Neelin, J. David | |
2018-08-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:16页码:8586-8595 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Precipitation accumulations, integrated over precipitation events in hourly data, are examined from 1979 to 2013 over the contiguous United States during the warm season (May-October). As expected from theory, accumulation distributions have a characteristic shape, with an approximate power law decrease with event size followed by an exponential drop at a characteristic cutoff scale s(L) for each location. This cutoff is a predictor of the highest accumulation percentiles and of a similarly defined daily precipitation cutoff P-L. Comparing 1997-2013 and 1979-1995 periods, there are significant regional increases in s(L) in several regions. This yields distribution changes that are weighted disproportionately toward extreme accumulations. In the Northeast, for example, risk ratio (conditioned on occurrence) for accumulations larger than 109 mm increases by a factor of 2-4 (5th-95th). These changes in risk ratio as a function of size, and connection to underlying theory, have counterparts in the observed daily precipitation trends. Plain Language Summary Extreme accumulations of rainfall over a precipitation event can damage infrastructure, impact transportation, and be hazardous to human lives. For each region, there is a characteristic accumulation size that controls the probability of the most extreme accumulations. We show that this characteristic size has increased in several U.S. regions over recent decades. This implies an increase in the probability of extreme accumulations, which is expected to further intensify under future global warming. |
英文关键词 | precipitation accumulations extreme events global warming risk daily precipitation United States |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445612500078 |
WOS关键词 | HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; TRENDS ; CLIMATE ; INTENSITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; EVENTS ; SNOW |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26844 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian,Neelin, J. David. Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(16):8586-8595. |
APA | Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian,&Neelin, J. David.(2018).Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(16),8586-8595. |
MLA | Martinez-Villalobos, Cristian,et al."Shifts in Precipitation Accumulation Extremes During the Warm Season Over the United States".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.16(2018):8586-8595. |
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