GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL080963
Late-July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin
Yang, Jing1,2,3; Zhu, Tao1,2; Gao, Miaoni4; Lin, Hai5; Wang, Bin6,7; Bao, Qing8
2018-11-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:22页码:12610-12615
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China; USA; Canada
英文摘要

Dynamical subseasonal forecast skill of summer daily maximum temperature (T-max) over East China was evaluated based on a 20-year (1995-2014) subseasonal reforecast data set from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. A significant late-July barrier of subseasonal forecast skill was identified for the T-max over the Yangtze River Basin, which concurs with a reduction in the prediction skill for the local 500-hPa geopotential height. This barrier period corresponds to an abrupt transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation when the western North Pacific subtropical high abruptly migrates northward from Yangtze River Basin to northern China. The transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation features the largest day-to-day variance in the position of western North Pacific subtropical high, which may cause the drop of the subseasonal forecast skill for both the geopotential height and T-max. The results indicate that the atmospheric subseasonal predictability may be strongly affected by the phases of the local climatological intraseasonal variation.


Plain Language Summary This study identified a significant late-July barrier of subseasonal forecast skill over the Yangtze River Basin and suggested that the atmospheric subseasonal predictability may be strongly affected by the phases of the local climatological intraseasonal variation.


英文关键词daily maximum temperature subseasonal prediction forecast barrier
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000453250000057
WOS关键词HEAT-WAVE ; CHINA
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26947
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Minist Civil Affairs,Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China;
3.SUNY Albany, Atmospher Sci Res Ctr, Albany, NY 12222 USA;
4.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China;
5.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Meteorol Res Div, Dorval, PQ, Canada;
6.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;
7.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA;
8.Chinese Acad Sci, IAP, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Yang, Jing,Zhu, Tao,Gao, Miaoni,et al. Late-July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(22):12610-12615.
APA Yang, Jing,Zhu, Tao,Gao, Miaoni,Lin, Hai,Wang, Bin,&Bao, Qing.(2018).Late-July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(22),12610-12615.
MLA Yang, Jing,et al."Late-July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.22(2018):12610-12615.
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