Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075742 |
What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections? | |
Grose, Michael R.1; Gregory, Jonathan2; Colman, Robert3; Andrews, Timothy4 | |
2018-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:3页码:1559-1566 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; England |
英文摘要 | Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426161800043 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; CMIP5 ; GENERATION ; FEEDBACK ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26975 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CSIRO, Climate Sci Ctr, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 2.Univ Reading, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Bur Meteorol, Docklands, Vic, Australia; 4.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grose, Michael R.,Gregory, Jonathan,Colman, Robert,et al. What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(3):1559-1566. |
APA | Grose, Michael R.,Gregory, Jonathan,Colman, Robert,&Andrews, Timothy.(2018).What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(3),1559-1566. |
MLA | Grose, Michael R.,et al."What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.3(2018):1559-1566. |
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