Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL075058 |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations | |
Yoshida, Kohei1; Sugi, Masato1; Mizuta, Ryo1; Murakami, Hiroyuki1,2; Ishii, Masayoshi1 | |
2017-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:19 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; USA |
英文摘要 | Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4K surface warming climates with a 60km global atmospheric model. The global number of TCs decreases by 33% in the future projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase in the central and eastern parts of the extra tropical North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 4 and 5) TC occurrences increase over a broader area including the south of Japan and south of Madagascar. The global number of category 4 and 5 TCs significantly decreases, contrary to the increase seen in several previous studies. Lifetime maximum surface wind speeds and precipitation rate are amplified globally. Regional TC activity changes have large uncertainty corresponding to sea surface temperature warming patterns. TC-resolving large-ensemble simulations provide useful information, especially for policy making related to future climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000413921300044 |
WOS关键词 | FREQUENCY ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/26993 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2.Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yoshida, Kohei,Sugi, Masato,Mizuta, Ryo,et al. Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(19). |
APA | Yoshida, Kohei,Sugi, Masato,Mizuta, Ryo,Murakami, Hiroyuki,&Ishii, Masayoshi.(2017).Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(19). |
MLA | Yoshida, Kohei,et al."Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.19(2017). |
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