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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL074016 |
Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century | |
Kravtsov, Sergey | |
2017-06-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both. Plain Language Summary Global and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited. |
英文关键词 | global warming forced versus internal climate variability stadium wave |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404382600056 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; CMIP5 ; PREDICTABILITY ; SIMULATIONS ; TRENDS ; CLOUD ; OCEAN |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27015 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Wisconsin, Dept Math Sci, Atmospher Sci Grp, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kravtsov, Sergey. Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(11). |
APA | Kravtsov, Sergey.(2017).Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(11). |
MLA | Kravtsov, Sergey."Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.11(2017). |
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