资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 is the fourth edition of this World Energy Outlook Special Report. Reflecting its growing partnership with Southeast Asia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has conducted these in-depth studies every two years since 2013. The studies highlight the opportunities and risks facing the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam - as they look to meet rising energy demand in a secure, affordable and sustainable manner.

This report does not forecast what the energy sector will look like in Southeast Asia. The aim is to consider different possible futures, and the ways that they could come about. The report considers two main scenarios.

The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) assesses where today’s policy frameworks and ambitions, plus continued evolution of known technologies, might take Southeast Asia’s energy sector in the period to 2040. This scenario only takes into account policies that have been announced (“stated”) and does not take a position on how these policies might evolve in future. The aim is to hold up a mirror to the energy ambitions of today’s decision makers and provide a candid assessment of their implications for energy markets, security and emissions.

The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) takes a different approach. Instead of setting out the starting conditions, it fixes the outcomes and works back to the present to see how they can be achieved. The outcomes are the key energy-related components of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: delivering on the Paris Agreement, achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030, and dramatically reducing energy-related air pollution.

Whereas the Stated Policies Scenario describes “where the region is heading”, the Sustainable Development Scenario shows “where it would need to go” to meet these internationally agreed goals. This gap between these outcomes can be narrowed, but it will require much stronger policy actions.

After a scene-setting discussion in the first chapter, the scenario projections across all fuels and technologies are described in detail in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, we analyse in detail three key areas: the future of cooling in the region; the scope to expand regional electricity trading, and the prospects for investment in the electricity sector.

Read key findings

See also press release