Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016GL072355 |
Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes | |
Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi1,2; Martin, Thomas1; Latif, Mojib1,3; Park, Wonsun1 | |
2017-05-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:9 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Iran |
英文摘要 | While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends. Plain Language Summary While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds. Here we show that climate models simulate a high level of internal variability, so that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific could still be due to natural processes. |
英文关键词 | Pacific Walker Circulation tropical Pacific climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402143700034 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; WALKER CIRCULATION ; WARMING HIATUS ; REANALYSIS PROJECT ; LEVEL ; MODELS ; TRENDS ; DRIVEN ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27019 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Kiel, Germany; 2.Univ Isfahan, Dept Phys, Esfahan, Iran; 3.Univ Kiel, Cluster Excellence Future Ocean, Kiel, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi,Martin, Thomas,Latif, Mojib,et al. Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(9). |
APA | Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi,Martin, Thomas,Latif, Mojib,&Park, Wonsun.(2017).Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(9). |
MLA | Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi,et al."Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.9(2017). |
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