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Western Lake Erie is expected to experience a lower than average harmful algal bloom (HAB) this summer, according to the 2020 Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Early Season Projection issued by NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) earlier today.

Projections of the bloom’s biomass will be issued weekly through early July. On July 9, NOAA will issue the official Lake Erie HAB Seasonal Forecast via a virtual webinar co-hosted with Ohio Sea Grant. Click here to subscribe to the HAB forecasts and seasonal projections for Lake Erie.

Projected bloom compared to previous years. The wide bar is the likely range of severity based on limits of model uncertainty. The narrow bar is the potential range of severity. Because the forecast uses modeled discharge for a month, there is uncertainty in maximum bloom severity. Credit: NOAA, Heidelberg University