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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085806 |
Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing | |
Dittus, Andrea J.1; Hawkins, Ed1; Wilcox, Laura J.1; Sutton, Rowan T.1; Smith, Christopher J.2; Andrews, Martin B.3; Forster, Piers M.2 | |
2020-05-24 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The relative importance of anthropogenic aerosol in decadal variations of historical climate is uncertain, largely due to uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. We analyze a novel large ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 for 1850-2014, where anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions are scaled to sample a wide range of historical aerosol radiative forcing with present-day values ranging from -0.38 to -1.50 Wm(-2). Five ensemble members are run for each of five aerosol scaling factors. Decadal variations in surface temperatures are strongly sensitive to aerosol forcing, particularly between 1950 and 1980. Post-1980, trends are dominated by greenhouse gas forcing, with much lower sensitivity to aerosol emission differences. Most realizations with aerosol forcing more negative than about -1 Wm(-2)simulate stronger cooling trends in the mid-20th century compared with observations, while the simulated warming post-1980 always exceeds observed warming, likelydue to a warm bias in the transient climate response in HadGEM3-GC3.1. |
英文关键词 | historical aerosol forcing climate model simulations Forcing uncertainty Transient Climate Response Large ensemble |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000551465400060 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC ; MODEL ; RETHINKING ; CMIP5 ; EMISSIONS |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/270439 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dittus, Andrea J.,Hawkins, Ed,Wilcox, Laura J.,et al. Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(13). |
APA | Dittus, Andrea J..,Hawkins, Ed.,Wilcox, Laura J..,Sutton, Rowan T..,Smith, Christopher J..,...&Forster, Piers M..(2020).Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(13). |
MLA | Dittus, Andrea J.,et al."Sensitivity of Historical Climate Simulations to Uncertain Aerosol Forcing".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.13(2020). |
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