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ECMWF upgrades its forecasting system on a regular basis, and one such upgrade is currently planned for 30 June 2020. These upgrades enable the Centre to integrate the latest scientific advances into its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).

Ahead of the implementation of IFS Cycle 47r1, Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger will provide an assessment of the upgrade and present new and improved products to be made available as part of it, in a webinar on 27 May, repeated on 28 May.

IFS Cycle 47r1 improves forecasts of several near-surface parameters and for upper-air fields, especially in the extratropical stratosphere. Changes in forecast performance for tropical cyclone (TC) tracks are statistically neutral, albeit with an improved wind speed to depth relationship. The upgrade also introduces a new metric related to TC size, ‘wind-radii’, which provides information on the maximum distance away from the TC centre at which predefined wind thresholds are exceeded. The TC wind radii supplement the existing forecasts of TC track and intensity.

Improvements to Convective Inhibition (CIN) ensure that the parameter provides better guidance for the initiation of convection/thunderstorm activity. The formulation of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and CAPE-shear has also been reviewed as part of the new model cycle, and the new formulation’s beneficial impact will be described in the webinar.

Join the webinars

• 27 May 2020 at 08:30 (UTC) – Join the webinar
• Repeated on 28 May 2020 at 14:30 (UTC) – Join the webinar

The webinars will be one hour long, including a question and answer session.

Further information

A description of the meteorological content and impact of IFS Cycle 47r1 is provided on the implementation page, where regular updates on this upgrade are posted.

In an earlier webinar, Director of Research Andy Brown explained the changes that will be implemented in IFS Cycle 47r1.