Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL081967 |
Added Value of Large Ensemble Simulations for Assessing Extreme River Discharge in a 2 degrees C Warmer World | |
van der Wiel, K.1; Wanders, N.2,3; Selten, F. M.1; Bierkens, M. F. P.2,4 | |
2019-02-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:4页码:2093-2102 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; USA |
英文摘要 | The assessment of return periods of extreme hydrological events often relies on statistical analysis using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Here we compare the traditional GEV approach with a novel large ensemble approach to determine the added value of a direct, empirical distribution-based estimate of extreme hydrological events. Using the global climate and hydrological models EC-Earth and PCR-GLOBWB, we simulate 2,000 years of global hydrology for a present-day and 2 degrees C warmer climate. We show that the GEV method has inherent limitations in estimating changes in hydrological extremes, especially for compound hydrological events. The large ensemble method does not suffer from these limitations and quantifies the impacts of climate change with greater precision. The explicit simulation of extreme events enables better hydrological process understanding. We conclude that future studies focusing on the impact of climatic changes on hydrological extremes should use large ensemble techniques to properly account for these rare hydrological events. |
英文关键词 | hydrological extremes climate change floods large ensembles GEV droughts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461855600022 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; PRECIPITATION ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTIES ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27224 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Univ Utrecht, Phys Geog, Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands; 3.Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; 4.Deltares, Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van der Wiel, K.,Wanders, N.,Selten, F. M.,et al. Added Value of Large Ensemble Simulations for Assessing Extreme River Discharge in a 2 degrees C Warmer World[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(4):2093-2102. |
APA | van der Wiel, K.,Wanders, N.,Selten, F. M.,&Bierkens, M. F. P..(2019).Added Value of Large Ensemble Simulations for Assessing Extreme River Discharge in a 2 degrees C Warmer World.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(4),2093-2102. |
MLA | van der Wiel, K.,et al."Added Value of Large Ensemble Simulations for Assessing Extreme River Discharge in a 2 degrees C Warmer World".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.4(2019):2093-2102. |
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