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DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-16631-9 |
Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High | |
Chen, Xiaolong1,2; Zhou, Tianjun1,2,3; Wu, Peili4; Guo, Zhun5; Wang, Minghuai6,7 | |
2020-06-04 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | The western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) is a key circulation system controlling the summer monsoon and typhoon activities over the western Pacific, but future projections of its changes remain hugely uncertain. Here we find two leading modes that account for nearly 80% intermodel spread in its future projection under a high emission scenario. They are linked to a cold-tongue-like bias in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and a warm bias beneath the marine stratocumulus, respectively. Observational constraints using sea surface temperature patterns reduce the uncertainties by 45% and indicate a robust intensification of the WNPSH due to suppressed warming in the western Pacific and enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, leading to 28% more rainfall projected in East China and 36% less rainfall in Southeast Asia than suggested by the multi-model mean. The intensification of the WNPSH implies more future monsoon rainfall and heatwaves but less typhoon landfalls over East Asia. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000540509000001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; MODEL BIASES ; CLIMATE ; ATLANTIC ; MONSOON ; OCEAN ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/273367 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Climate Change Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 6.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China; 7.Nanjing Univ, Joint Int Res Lab Atmospher & Earth Syst Sci, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Xiaolong,Zhou, Tianjun,Wu, Peili,et al. Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Chen, Xiaolong,Zhou, Tianjun,Wu, Peili,Guo, Zhun,&Wang, Minghuai.(2020).Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Chen, Xiaolong,et al."Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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