Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-2020-508 |
Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control | |
Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud | |
2020-06-10 | |
发表期刊 | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | The weather regime dependent predictability of precipitation in the convection permitting kilometric scale AROME-EPS is examined for the entire HyMeX SOP1 employing the convective adjustment timescale. This diagnostic quantifies variations in synoptic forcing on precipitation and is associated with different precipitation characteristics, forecast skill and predictability. During strong synoptic control, which is dominating the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-months period, the domain integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentiles, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes. The study also considers a prominent heavy precipitation event that occurred during the NAWDEX field campaign in the same region, and the predictability during this event is compared with the events that occurred during HyMeX. It is shown that the unconditional evaluation of precipitation widely parallels the strongly forced weather type evaluation and obscures forecast model characteristics typical for weak control. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/274331 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud. Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020. |
APA | Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud.(2020).Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. |
MLA | Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud."Dependence of Predictability of Precipitation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Coastal Region on the Strength of Synoptic Control".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2020). |
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