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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079677 |
Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Assimilating Coastal Surface Currents in an Idealized Study | |
Li, Yi; Toumi, Ralf | |
2018-09-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:18页码:10019-10026 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | High-frequency (HF) radars can provide high-resolution and frequent ocean surface currents observations during tropical cyclone (TC) landfall. We describe the first assimilation of such potential observations using idealized twin experiments with and without these observations. The data assimilation system consists of the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In this system, synthetic HF radar-observed coastal currents are assimilated, and the 24-, 48- and 72-hr forecast performances are examined for TCs with various intensities, sizes, and translation speeds. Assimilating coastal surface currents improves the intensity forecast. The errors of the maximum wind speed reduce by 2.7 (33%) and 1.9 m/s (60%) in the 72-hr forecast and 2.8 (40%) and 1.4 m/s (62%) in the 48-hr forecast, for Category 4 and 2 cyclones, respectively. These improvements are similar to the current operational TC forecast errors, so that assimilating HF radar observations could be a substantial benefit. Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones (TC) cause great loss but the forecast of the intensity has not improved significantly for a long time. High-frequency radar systems measure the coastal (up to 200 km from the coast) surface currents with high resolution, even during TC landfall. In this study, we assimilate the synthetic observations in an idealized coupled tropical cyclone forecast system. By using strongly coupled data assimilation, the ocean observations update the atmospheric state and produce significant improvements. For instance, the errors of the maximum wind speed reduce by 2.7 (33%) and 1.9 m/s (60%) in 72-hr forecast and 2.8 (40%) and 1.4 m/s (62%) in 48-hr forecast, for Category 4 and 2 cyclones, respectively. These improvements are similar to the magnitude of the current operational TC forecast error (7 and 6 m/s for 72- and 48-hr forecast), so that assimilating the radar observations could be a substantial benefit. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447761300075 |
WOS关键词 | ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER ; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 4D-VAR ; RADAR OBSERVATIONS ; PREDICTION ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27616 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, Blackett Lab, London, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Yi,Toumi, Ralf. Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Assimilating Coastal Surface Currents in an Idealized Study[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(18):10019-10026. |
APA | Li, Yi,&Toumi, Ralf.(2018).Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Assimilating Coastal Surface Currents in an Idealized Study.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(18),10019-10026. |
MLA | Li, Yi,et al."Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts by Assimilating Coastal Surface Currents in an Idealized Study".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.18(2018):10019-10026. |
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