Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088662 |
Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multi‐model Ensemble | |
Malcolm John Roberts; Joanne Camp; Jon Seddon; Pier Luigi Vidale; Kevin Hodges; Benoit Vanniere; Jenny Mecking; Rein Haarsma; Alessio Bellucci; Enrico Scoccimarro; Louis‐; Philippe Caron; Fabrice Chauvin; Laurent Terray; Sophie Valcke; Marie‐; Pierre Moine; Dian Putrasahan; Christopher D. Roberts; Retish Senan; Colin Zarzycki; Paul Ullrich; Yohei Yamada; Ryo Mizuta; Chihiro Kodama; Dan Fu; Qiuying Zhang; Gokhan Danabasoglu; Nan Rosenbloom; Hong Wang; Lixin Wu | |
2020-06-20 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and mid‐latitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multi‐model ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250km to 25km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950‐2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10m wind speeds by 2050. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/276580 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Malcolm John Roberts,Joanne Camp,Jon Seddon,等. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multi‐model Ensemble[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Malcolm John Roberts.,Joanne Camp.,Jon Seddon.,Pier Luigi Vidale.,Kevin Hodges.,...&Lixin Wu.(2020).Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multi‐model Ensemble.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Malcolm John Roberts,et al."Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multi‐model Ensemble".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
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