GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL078814
Shallow Seismicity Forecast for the India-Eurasia Collision Zone Based on Geodetic Strain Rates
Zheng, Gang1,2; Lou, Yidong1,2; Wang, Hua2,3; Geng, Jianghui1,2; Shi, Chuang4
2018-09-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:17页码:8905-8912
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Geodetic strain rates from increasing Global Positioning System data provide a promising approach for seismicity forecast. With the strain rate field presented in Zheng et al. (2017, ) derived from the most complete and up-to-date Global Positioning System data set in the India-Eurasia collision zone, we forecast the shallow seismicity of this region, and infer that about 11 Mw7.5, 36 Mw7.0, 109 Mw6.5, and 326 Mw6.0 earthquakes may occur here every 100years. We indicate that shallow seismicity forecast may be able to help us distinguish between block and continuum models, and block model cannot well describe the kinematics of the Tibetan Plateau, Tien Shan, West Mongolia, North China, and Myanmar. We suggest that the regions with high forecasted earthquake rates but lack of historical earthquakes are undergoing high seismic risk, such as the west-central Himalaya (overdue for Mw7.5 earthquakes, possibly Mw8.0) and the central Altyn Tagh fault (overdue for Mw7.0 and Mw7.5 earthquakes).


Plain Language Summary Seismicity has brought enormous losses of life and property to human, especially to the India-Eurasia collision zone. The society is eager for a good seismicity forecast to help reduce the losses from earthquakes. Geodetic strain rates from increasing Global Positioning System data provide a promising approach for the seismicity forecast. In this study, we forecast the shallow seismicity of the India-Eurasia collision zone in different magnitude ranges based on the most complete and up-to-date Global Positioning System data set for this region. The forecast results show that the India-Eurasia collision zone may suffer from about 11 Mw7.5, 36 Mw7.0, 109 Mw6.5, and 326 Mw6.0 shallow earthquakes every 100years. We associate shallow seismicity forecast with the long-term debate between block and continuum models for the crustal deformation in the India-Eurasia collision zone, and suggest that the forecast results may help clarify the debate. Also, we indicate that the combination of the forecast results and the historical seismic catalog can be used to identify seismic gaps, such as the west-central Himalaya that is overdue for Mw7.5 earthquakes (possibly Mw8.0) and the central Altyn Tagh fault that is overdue for Mw7.0 and Mw7.5 earthquakes.


英文关键词geodetic strain rates shallow seismicity forecast India-Eurasia collision zone block vs continuum models seismic gaps
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000445727500023
WOS关键词PLATE BOUNDARY ; EARTHQUAKE FORECASTS ; SMOOTHED SEISMICITY ; RATE MODEL ; RATE MAP ; DEFORMATION ; ASIA ; TECTONICS ; CALIFORNIA ; MAGNITUDE
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27732
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Wuhan Univ, GNSS Res Ctr, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China;
2.Wuhan Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Geospatial Technol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China;
3.Guangdong Univ Technol, Dept Surveying Engn, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China;
4.Beihang Univ, Sch Elect & Informat Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zheng, Gang,Lou, Yidong,Wang, Hua,et al. Shallow Seismicity Forecast for the India-Eurasia Collision Zone Based on Geodetic Strain Rates[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(17):8905-8912.
APA Zheng, Gang,Lou, Yidong,Wang, Hua,Geng, Jianghui,&Shi, Chuang.(2018).Shallow Seismicity Forecast for the India-Eurasia Collision Zone Based on Geodetic Strain Rates.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(17),8905-8912.
MLA Zheng, Gang,et al."Shallow Seismicity Forecast for the India-Eurasia Collision Zone Based on Geodetic Strain Rates".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.17(2018):8905-8912.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Zheng, Gang]的文章
[Lou, Yidong]的文章
[Wang, Hua]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Zheng, Gang]的文章
[Lou, Yidong]的文章
[Wang, Hua]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Zheng, Gang]的文章
[Lou, Yidong]的文章
[Wang, Hua]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。