GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL076998
What Can We Do to Forecast Tsunami Hazards in the Near Field Given Large Epistemic Uncertainty in Rapid Seismic Source Inversions?
Cienfuegos, Rodrigo1,2; Catalan, Patricio A.1,3,4; Urrutia, Alejandro1; Benavente, Roberto1; Aranguiz, Rafael1,5; Gonzalez, Gabriel1,6
2018-05-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:10页码:4944-4955
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Chile
英文摘要

The variability in obtaining estimates of tsunami inundation and runup on a near-real-time tsunami hazard assessment setting is evaluated. To this end, 19 different source models of the Maule Earthquake were considered as if they represented the best available knowledge an early tsunami warning system could consider. Results show that large variability can be observed in both coseismic deformation and tsunami variables such as inundated area and maximum runup. This suggests that using single source model solutions might not be appropriate unless categorical thresholds are used. Nevertheless, the tsunami forecast obtained from aggregating all source models is in good agreement with observed quantities, suggesting that the development of seismic source inversion techniques in a Bayesian framework or generating stochastic finite fault models from a reference inversion solution could be a viable way of dealing with epistemic uncertainties in the framework of nearly-real-time tsunami hazard mapping.


Plain Language Summary Owing to recent advancements in rapid seismic source characterization and tsunami simulation, nearly-real-time tsunami hazard forecasts in the framework of tsunami early warning systems are starting to be within reach. However, in this study we bring a note of caution regarding its future operational implementation since the level of uncertainty associated to a single rupture inversion is high and thus calls for the use of multiple realizations of seismic inversions to forecast inundation maps and assess their uncertainty bounds.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000435262000046
WOS关键词EARTHQUAKE SOURCE MODELS ; 2011 TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE ; REAL-TIME GPS ; W 8.8 MAULE ; CHILE EARTHQUAKE ; FAULT SLIP ; WAVE HEIGHT ; RUPTURE ; INUNDATION ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27753
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Ctr Invest Gest Integrada Riesgo Desastres CIGIDE, Santiago, Chile;
2.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ingn Hidraul & Ambiental, Santiago, Chile;
3.Univ Tecn Federico Santa Maria, Dept Obras Civiles, Valparaiso, Chile;
4.Univ Tecn Federico Santa Maria, Ctr Cient Tecnol Valparaiso CCTVal, Valparaiso, Chile;
5.Univ Catolica Santisima Concepcion, Dept Ingn Civil, Concepcion, Chile;
6.Univ Catolica Norte, Dept Ciencias Geol, Antofagasta, Chile
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Cienfuegos, Rodrigo,Catalan, Patricio A.,Urrutia, Alejandro,et al. What Can We Do to Forecast Tsunami Hazards in the Near Field Given Large Epistemic Uncertainty in Rapid Seismic Source Inversions?[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(10):4944-4955.
APA Cienfuegos, Rodrigo,Catalan, Patricio A.,Urrutia, Alejandro,Benavente, Roberto,Aranguiz, Rafael,&Gonzalez, Gabriel.(2018).What Can We Do to Forecast Tsunami Hazards in the Near Field Given Large Epistemic Uncertainty in Rapid Seismic Source Inversions?.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(10),4944-4955.
MLA Cienfuegos, Rodrigo,et al."What Can We Do to Forecast Tsunami Hazards in the Near Field Given Large Epistemic Uncertainty in Rapid Seismic Source Inversions?".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.10(2018):4944-4955.
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