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DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073633 |
The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective | |
Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y. | |
2017-10-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:20 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Israel |
英文摘要 | Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85 degrees of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6 degrees in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000416761600068 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; POTENTIAL VORTICITY ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ; BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY ; SIMULATIONS ; GCM ; JET ; PRECIPITATION ; STABILITY |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27773 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Rehovot, Israel |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tamarin, T.,Kaspi, Y.. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(20). |
APA | Tamarin, T.,&Kaspi, Y..(2017).The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(20). |
MLA | Tamarin, T.,et al."The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.20(2017). |
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