Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century

doi:10.5194/acp-2020-478

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.5194/acp-2020-478
	Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century
	Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins
	2020-06-23
发表期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
出版年	2020
英文摘要	Anthropogenic aerosols are dominant drivers of historical monsoon rainfall change. However, large uncertainties in the radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and the dynamical response to this forcing, lead to uncertainty in the simulated monsoon response. We use historical simulations in which aerosol emissions are scaled by factors from 0.2 to 1.5 to explore the monsoon sensitivity to aerosol forcing uncertainty (−0.38 W m⁻² to −1.50 W m⁻²). Hemispheric asymmetry in emissions generates a strong relationship between scaling factor and both hemispheric temperature contrast and meridional location of tropical rainfall. Increasing the scaling from 0.2 to 1.5 reduces the global monsoon area by 3 % and the global monsoon intensity by 2 % over the period 1950–2014, and switches the dominant influence on the 1950–1980 monsoon rainfall trend between greenhouse gas and aerosol. Regionally, aerosol scaling has a pronounced effect on Northern Hemisphere monsoon rainfall.
领域	地球科学
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/278108
专题	地球科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins. Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020.
APA	Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins.(2020).Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
MLA	Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Andrew G. Turner, Amulya Chevuturi, Laura J. Wilcox, Andrea J. Dittus, and Ed Hawkins."Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (2020).