资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating wintertime haze events in the North China Plain region and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative feedbacks. This paper discusses the estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol feedbacks, and possible causes for the differences among the participating models. Over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, the ensemble mean of estimated aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top of atmosphere, inside the atmo- sphere, and at the surface are - 1.1, 7.7, and -8.8 W m(-2) during January 2010, respectively. Subdivisions of direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing confirm the dominant role of direct forcing. During severe haze days (17-19 January 2010), the averaged reduction in near-surface temperature for the BTH region can reach 0.3-1.6 degrees C. The responses of wind speeds at 10 m (WS10) inferred from different models show consistent declines in eastern China. For the BTH region, aerosol-radiation feedback-induced daytime changes in PM2.5 concentrations during severe haze days range from 6.0 to 12.9 mu g m(-3) (< 6 %). Sensitivity simulations indicate the important effect of aerosol mixing states on the estimates of ADRF and aerosol feedbacks. Besides, black carbon (BC) exhibits a large contribution to atmospheric heating and feedbacks although it accounts for a small share of mass concentration of PM2.5.