GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2018GL078878
Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea
Holt, Jason1; 39;Dea, Enda2
2018-11-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:21页码:11827-11836
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Scotland
英文摘要

We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate-driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2-1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 10(6) m(3)/s) to 0.0-0.6 Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure and to a newly identified circulation-salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide-ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.


Plain Language Summary Little is known about how climate change might impact the long-term circulation of shelf seas. In this paper, we use a high-resolution shelf sea model to demonstrate how end-of-century changes in the wider ocean can lead to a substantial reduction in the flow of water from the North Atlantic into the North Sea. This, in turn, reduces the circulation of this sea, which becomes more influenced by rivers and less by oceanic waters. River water generally contains higher levels of nutrients, and our simulations show that this future scenario leads to enhanced levels of phytoplankton growth in local regions of the North Sea. This may lead to undesirable disturbances to the marine ecosystems, such as depletion of oxygen near the seabed. The reduced circulation would also disrupt the transport of larvae around the sea and lead to increased retention of pollutants. The reduction in circulation arises from several causes relating to increased density layering at the continental shelf edge, changes in the large-scale ocean circulation and salinity, and disruption of the density-driven circulation of the North Sea. By exploring these novel future scenarios, we emphasize the need to understand better the many ways climate change can influence the marine environment and its ecosystems.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000451832600035
WOS关键词EUROPEAN SHELF ; CMIP5 ; UNCERTAINTY ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACTS ; CARBON ; MODEL ; NEMO
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27919
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool, Merseyside, England;
2.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England;
3.Natl Oceanog Ctr, Southampton, Hants, England;
4.Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth, Devon, England;
5.Scottish Marine Inst, Scottish Assoc Marine Sci, Oban, Argyll, Scotland;
6.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Holt, Jason,39;Dea, Enda. Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(21):11827-11836.
APA Holt, Jason,&39;Dea, Enda.(2018).Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(21),11827-11836.
MLA Holt, Jason,et al."Climate-Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.21(2018):11827-11836.
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