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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999 |
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland? | |
Undorf, S.1,2,3; Allen, K.1; Hagg, J.1; Li, S.4,5; Lott, F. C.6; Metzger, M. J.1; Sparrow, S. N.4; Tett, S. F. B.1 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; Sweden; England |
英文摘要 | To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5-15 years for 1950-2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d average nighttime temperature were more unusual with return periods of >30 years. Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely. Higher risk ratios are found for experiments from the CMIP6-generation global climate model HadGEM3-GA6 compared to those from the very-large ensemble system weather@home. Between them, the best estimates of the risk ratios for daytime extremes range between 1.2-2.4, 1.2-2.3, and 1.4-4.0 for the 1, 5, and 30 d averages. For the corresponding nighttime extremes, the values are higher and the ranges wider (1.5- >50, 1.5-5.5, and 1.6- >50). The short-period nighttime extremes were more likely in 2018 than in 2017, suggesting a contribution from year-to-year climate variability to the risk enhancement of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic effects. Climate projections suggest further substantial increases in the likelihood of 2018 temperatures between now and 2050, and that towards the end of the century every summer might be as hot as 2018. Major negative impacts occurred, especially on rural sectors, while transport and water infrastructure alleviated most impacts by implementing costly special measures. Overall, Scotland could cope with the impacts of the 2018 heatwave. However, given the likelihood increase of high-temperature extremes, uncertainty about consequences of even higher temperatures and/or repeated heatwaves, and substantial costs of preventing negative impacts, we conclude that despite its cool climate, high-temperature extremes are important to consider for climate change adaptation in Scotland. |
英文关键词 | climate change temperature extremes adaptation heatwave impacts summer 2018 event attribution UK climate |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519026300001 |
WOS关键词 | ATTRIBUTION ; VALIDATION ; GLASGOW ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279245 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; 3.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden; 4.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford OX1 3QG, England; 5.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England; 6.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX13 PB, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Undorf, S.,Allen, K.,Hagg, J.,et al. Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Undorf, S..,Allen, K..,Hagg, J..,Li, S..,Lott, F. C..,...&Tett, S. F. B..(2020).Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Undorf, S.,et al."Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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