GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999
Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?
Undorf, S.1,2,3; Allen, K.1; Hagg, J.1; Li, S.4,5; Lott, F. C.6; Metzger, M. J.1; Sparrow, S. N.4; Tett, S. F. B.1
2020-03-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2020
卷号15期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Scotland; Sweden; England
英文摘要

To understand whether high temperatures and temperature extremes are important for climate change adaptation in Scotland, we place the 2018 heatwave in the context of past, present, and future climate, and provide a rapid but comprehensive impact analysis. The observed hottest day (d), 5 d, and 30 d period of 2018 and the 5 d period with the warmest nights had return periods of 5-15 years for 1950-2018. The warmest night and the maximum 30 d average nighttime temperature were more unusual with return periods of >30 years. Anthropogenic climate change since 1850 has made all these high-temperature extremes more likely. Higher risk ratios are found for experiments from the CMIP6-generation global climate model HadGEM3-GA6 compared to those from the very-large ensemble system weather@home. Between them, the best estimates of the risk ratios for daytime extremes range between 1.2-2.4, 1.2-2.3, and 1.4-4.0 for the 1, 5, and 30 d averages. For the corresponding nighttime extremes, the values are higher and the ranges wider (1.5- >50, 1.5-5.5, and 1.6- >50). The short-period nighttime extremes were more likely in 2018 than in 2017, suggesting a contribution from year-to-year climate variability to the risk enhancement of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic effects. Climate projections suggest further substantial increases in the likelihood of 2018 temperatures between now and 2050, and that towards the end of the century every summer might be as hot as 2018. Major negative impacts occurred, especially on rural sectors, while transport and water infrastructure alleviated most impacts by implementing costly special measures. Overall, Scotland could cope with the impacts of the 2018 heatwave. However, given the likelihood increase of high-temperature extremes, uncertainty about consequences of even higher temperatures and/or repeated heatwaves, and substantial costs of preventing negative impacts, we conclude that despite its cool climate, high-temperature extremes are important to consider for climate change adaptation in Scotland.


英文关键词climate change temperature extremes adaptation heatwave impacts summer 2018 event attribution UK climate
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000519026300001
WOS关键词ATTRIBUTION ; VALIDATION ; GLASGOW ; SYSTEM
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279245
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Midlothian, Scotland;
2.Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
3.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden;
4.Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr, Oxford OX1 3QG, England;
5.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England;
6.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX13 PB, Devon, England
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Undorf, S.,Allen, K.,Hagg, J.,et al. Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3).
APA Undorf, S..,Allen, K..,Hagg, J..,Li, S..,Lott, F. C..,...&Tett, S. F. B..(2020).Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3).
MLA Undorf, S.,et al."Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020).
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