Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6c2e |
Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways | |
Kalt, Gerald1; Lauk, Christian1; Mayer, Andreas1; Theurl, Michaela C.1; Kaltenegger, Katrin2; Winiwarter, Wilfried2,3; Erb, Karl-Heinz1; Matej, Sarah1; Haberl, Helmut1 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Poland |
英文摘要 | Global bioenergy potentials have been the subject of extensive research and continued controversy. Due to vast uncertainties regarding future yields, diets and other influencing parameters, estimates of future agricultural biomass potentials vary widely. Most scenarios compatible with ambitious climate targets foresee a large expansion of bioenergy, mainly from energy crops that needs to be kept consistent with projections of agriculture and food production. Using the global biomass balance model BioBaM, we here present an assessment of agricultural bioenergy potentials compatible with the Food and Agriculture Organization's (2018) 'Alternative pathways to 2050' projections. Mobilizing biomass at larger scales may be associated with systemic feedbacks causing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, e.g. crop residue removal resulting in loss of soil carbon stocks and increased emissions from fertilization. To assess these effects, we derive 'GHG cost supply-curves', i.e. integrated representations of biomass potentials and their systemic GHG costs. Livestock manure is most favourable in terms of GHG costs, as anaerobic digestion yields reductions of GHG emissions from manure management. Global potentials from intensive livestock systems are about 5 EJ/yr. Crop residues can provide up to 20 EJ/yr at moderate GHG costs. For energy crops, we find that the medium range of literature estimates (similar to 40 to 90 EJ/yr) is only compatible with FAO yield and human diet projections if energy plantations expand into grazing areas (similar to 4-5 million km(2)) and grazing land is intensified globally. Direct carbon stock changes associated with perennial energy crops are beneficial for climate mitigation, yet there are-sometimes considerable-'opportunity GHG costs' if one accounts the foregone opportunity of afforestation. Our results indicate that the large potentials of energy crops foreseen in many energy scenarios are not freely and unconditionally available. Disregarding systemic effects in agriculture can result in misjudgement of GHG saving potentials and flawed climate mitigation strategies. |
英文关键词 | bioenergy biomass potentials energy scenario GHG cost curve agriculture energy transition natural climate solutions |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000521170200001 |
WOS关键词 | CROP RESIDUE REMOVAL ; LAND-USE CHANGE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CONSTRUCTING LANDSCAPES ; BIOENERGY POTENTIALS ; ECOINVENT DATABASE ; BIO-ENERGY ; BIOFUELS ; IMPACTS ; WORLD |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279249 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Nat Resources& Life Sci, Vienna BOKU, Dept Econ & Social Sci, Inst Social Ecol SEC, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria; 2.IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; 3.Univ Zielona Gora, Inst Environm Engn, PL-65417 Zielona Gora, Poland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kalt, Gerald,Lauk, Christian,Mayer, Andreas,et al. Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Kalt, Gerald.,Lauk, Christian.,Mayer, Andreas.,Theurl, Michaela C..,Kaltenegger, Katrin.,...&Haberl, Helmut.(2020).Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Kalt, Gerald,et al."Greenhouse gas implications of mobilizing agricultural biomass for energy: a reassessment of global potentials in 2050 under different food-system pathways".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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