Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f |
Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates | |
Chen, Huopo1,2; Sun, Jianqi1,2; Li, Huixin2,3 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Precipitation extremes are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and these hazards often cause large socioeconomic losses and exert severe human health impacts each year. It is thus crucial to assess future exposure changes to precipitation extremes under different warming scenarios to improve the mitigation of climate change. Here, we project future exposure using a set of Coupled Earth System Model low-warming simulations and RCP8.5 large ensemble simulations. We find that the precipitation extremes are projected to significantly increase over the coming century under different future warming scenarios at both the global and regional levels. Compared to a 1.5 degrees C warmer climate, the 0.5 degrees C of additional warming under a 2.0 degrees C warmer future would increase the number of days of global aggregate precipitation extremes by approximately 3.6% by the end of this century. As a result, the global aggregate exposure is reported to increase by approximately 2.3% if the surface air temperature increases to 2.0 degrees C rather than 1.5 degrees C. An increase in exposure is also obvious for most regions across the world, and the largest increase in the future occurs over North Asia in response to the 0.5 degrees C of additional warming. Furthermore, exposure would increase more rapidly if the temperature increased following the RCP8.5 pathway. The exposure increase varies at the regional level, but in most cases, climate change shows more influential than that of the population; in addition, this influence does not depend on the population outcomes used here. |
英文关键词 | precipitation extremes population exposure climate change CESM 1.5 degrees C |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000519024900001 |
WOS关键词 | 1.5 DEGREES-C ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; DROUGHT RISK ; CHINA ; HEAT ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279250 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, Nanjing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi,Li, Huixin. Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3). |
APA | Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi,&Li, Huixin.(2020).Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3). |
MLA | Chen, Huopo,et al."Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020). |
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