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DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab751f
Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates
Chen, Huopo1,2; Sun, Jianqi1,2; Li, Huixin2,3
2020-03-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2020
卷号15期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Precipitation extremes are among the most dangerous climate-related hazards, and these hazards often cause large socioeconomic losses and exert severe human health impacts each year. It is thus crucial to assess future exposure changes to precipitation extremes under different warming scenarios to improve the mitigation of climate change. Here, we project future exposure using a set of Coupled Earth System Model low-warming simulations and RCP8.5 large ensemble simulations. We find that the precipitation extremes are projected to significantly increase over the coming century under different future warming scenarios at both the global and regional levels. Compared to a 1.5 degrees C warmer climate, the 0.5 degrees C of additional warming under a 2.0 degrees C warmer future would increase the number of days of global aggregate precipitation extremes by approximately 3.6% by the end of this century. As a result, the global aggregate exposure is reported to increase by approximately 2.3% if the surface air temperature increases to 2.0 degrees C rather than 1.5 degrees C. An increase in exposure is also obvious for most regions across the world, and the largest increase in the future occurs over North Asia in response to the 0.5 degrees C of additional warming. Furthermore, exposure would increase more rapidly if the temperature increased following the RCP8.5 pathway. The exposure increase varies at the regional level, but in most cases, climate change shows more influential than that of the population; in addition, this influence does not depend on the population outcomes used here.


英文关键词precipitation extremes population exposure climate change CESM 1.5 degrees C
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000519024900001
WOS关键词1.5 DEGREES-C ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; DROUGHT RISK ; CHINA ; HEAT ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; EVENTS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279250
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change, Nanjing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi,Li, Huixin. Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(3).
APA Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi,&Li, Huixin.(2020).Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(3).
MLA Chen, Huopo,et al."Increased population exposure to precipitation extremes under future warmer climates".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.3(2020).
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