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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc |
Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate | |
Liu, Qi1,2,3,4; Tan, Zhe-Min1; Sun, Jie2,3; Hou, Yayi5; Fu, Congbin1,4; Wu, Zhaohua2,3 | |
2020-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | It is believed that the continuing change in the Earth's climate will affect the viral activity and transmission of influenza over the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of an influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here, we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of an influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in the later 21st century. |
英文关键词 | influenza epidemic rapid weather variability North mid-latitude climate change predictable model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000521456900001 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; TRANSMISSION ; EVOLUTION ; HUMIDITY ; MORTALITY ; SEASONALITY ; DYNAMICS ; SURVIVAL ; DRIVERS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279275 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China; 2.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA; 3.Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA; 4.Nanjing Univ, Inst Climate & Global Change Res, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China; 5.Nanjing Univ, Sch Med, Div Immunol, State Key Lab Pharmaceut Biotechnol, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Qi,Tan, Zhe-Min,Sun, Jie,et al. Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(4). |
APA | Liu, Qi,Tan, Zhe-Min,Sun, Jie,Hou, Yayi,Fu, Congbin,&Wu, Zhaohua.(2020).Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(4). |
MLA | Liu, Qi,et al."Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.4(2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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